基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究     

邓世广  周龙泉  马亚伟  臧阳  王月  韩颜颜 《中国地震》2019,35(1):1-13

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。  相似文献   

浙江临安4.2级地震特征及烈度调查     

马志江  马起杨  侯林锋  石树中  杨福平 《震灾防御技术》2018,13(3):689-696

2017年4月12日，浙江省杭州市临安市发生4.2级地震，地震震中附近的潜川镇、河桥镇震感强烈，於潜镇、太阳镇、湍口镇等震感较为明显。在对震区地质构造、震源机制解资料分析的基础上，开展了烈度调查，并绘制了地震烈度图。本次地震震中烈度为Ⅴ度，面积22.6km2，烈度圈长轴方向北东向，与马金-乌镇断层走向一致。  相似文献   

基于裂隙尖端放电机制的深部岩体损伤自电特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘静  刘盛东  曹煜 《地球物理学报》2018,61(1):323-330

在大规模深部岩体损伤过程中发生的裂隙尖端放电现象往往引发地下雷电，对该现象发生机理、表现规律的揭示有助于地震、岩爆等的临灾预报.不同于在岩土体中液固耦合界面上发生的自然电场异常机理，在岩土体内部发生的裂隙尖端放电可谓是引发自然电场异常的另一重要微观机制.本文基于现有裂隙尖端放电的研究成果，详细阐述了裂隙尖端放电发生的过程，解释了岩体损伤过程中自然电场异常产生的微观机理，并结合室内实验成果论述了自电位的主要特征；进行了理论推导，认为在大尺度岩体连续损伤过程中，自电位具有含脉冲状波动并整体下降的特征；开展了原位测试，结果证明人工采掘扰动下的深部岩体连续破坏的过程中，自电位在破坏前期缓慢下降，在破坏过程中会出现脉冲状波动，随着破坏程度的加剧整体呈现波动中下降的规律，与理论推导、室内实验结论都相符.对比室内实验和原位测试成果发现，随着研究目标的空间尺度由mm级别扩展到m的级别，自电位波动的幅值也从数十个mV扩展到数百甚至上千mV，故认为在利用自电位波动规律来预测岩体破坏状态时，须受研究对象的空间尺度的约束.此外，在原位测试中发现，自电位对岩体损伤过程的响应较直流电阻率而言具有时域上的超前优势，并对此现象进行了解释.  相似文献   

Modeling RC column flexural failure modes under intensive seismic loading     

Ilias Gkimousis  Vlasis Koumousis 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(9):1942-1962

The aim of this work is to model beam‐column behavior in a computationally effective manner, revealing reliably the overall response of reinforced concrete members subjected to intensive seismic loading. In this respect, plasticity and damage are considered in the predominant longitudinal direction, allowing for fiber finite element modeling, while in addition the effect of inelastic buckling of longitudinal rebars, which becomes essential at later stages of intensive cyclic loading, is incorporated. Α smooth plasticity‐damage model is developed for concrete, accounting for unilateral compressive and tensile behavior, nonlinear unloading and crack closure phenomena. This is used to address concrete core crushing and spalling, which triggers the inelastic buckling of longitudinal rebars. For this reason, a uniaxial local stress‐strain constitutive relation for steel rebars is developed, which is based on a combined nonlinear kinematic and isotropic hardening law. The proposed constitutive model is validated on the basis of existing experimental data and the formulation of the buckling model for a single rebar is developed. The cross section of rebar is discretized into fibers, each one following the derived stress‐strain uniaxial law. The buckling curve is determined analytically, while equilibrium is imposed at the deformed configuration. The proposed models for concrete and rebars are embedded into a properly adjusted fiber beam‐column element of reinforced concrete members and the proposed formulation is verified with existing experimental data under intensive cyclic loading.  相似文献   

南北地震带北段流体资料地震预测效能检验     

王博  钟骏  王熠熙  陈石 《地震》2018,38(1):147-156

以南北地震带北段长时间、 连续并有多次震例记录的流体观测资料为研究对象, 使用Molchan图表法对其与周边地震的关系进行了检验和分析, 计算了时间占有率、 预测效能和概率增益等参数。 结果表明, 南北地震带北段各台项的预测效能差别较大。 整体看来, 甘东南地区的观测资料检验效果较好, 表现为概率增益较大; 青海东部地区的多个测项预测效能检验结果较好, 但概率增益较小; 宁夏北部贺兰山东麓断裂附近两台项的报准率差别不大, 但概率增益、 时间占有率等却都不同。 此外, 从前兆资料变化时间上看, 短期异常和长期异常都较多, 中期异常较少。  相似文献   

Guidelines on the use of structure-from-motion photogrammetry in geomorphic research     

Mike R. James  Jim H. Chandler  Anette Eltner  Clive Fraser  Pauline E. Miller  Jon P. Mills  Tom Noble  Stuart Robson  Stuart N. Lane 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):2081-2084

As a topographic modelling technique, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry combines the utility of digital photogrammetry with a flexibility and ease of use derived from multi-view computer vision methods. In conjunction with the rapidly increasing availability of imagery, particularly from unmanned aerial vehicles, SfM photogrammetry represents a powerful tool for geomorphological research. However, to fully realize this potential, its application must be carefully underpinned by photogrammetric considerations, surveys should be reported in sufficient detail to be repeatable (if practical) and results appropriately assessed to understand fully the potential errors involved. To deliver these goals, robust survey and reporting must be supported through (i) using appropriate survey design, (ii) applying suitable statistics to identify systematic error (bias) and to estimate precision within results, and (iii) propagating uncertainty estimates into the final data products. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

海洋磁测日变校正的纬度改正方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

潘星辰  姚长利  郑元满  石磊  张素琴 《地球物理学报》2020,63(8):3025-3036

目前,在远海开阔性海域磁测中,尚难以有效设立日变站,致使日变改正仍存在着困难.本文利用地磁台站实测资料对地磁日变的纬度分布特征进行研究,发现日变值随纬度变化具有由Sq电流中心向南北两侧递增的规律,且二者之间的关系可用二次函数近似描述。以此规律为基础我们建立了纬度改正方法,该方法以经度链为基站,利用基站数据得到日变值与磁纬度的拟合函数以进行纬度改正,再调整时差作为经度校正即得到计算站的日变值.实测数据计算结果表明,相较于加权平均法,此方法在远距离(经度差达40°)仍能保持较高的校正精度(4 nT),因而能更好地适用于远海磁测.  相似文献   

地震灾害风险防治协同机制研究     

陈华静  李一行  宫玥  王秀 《震灾防御技术》2020,15(4):731-738

在大应急体制下，地震灾害风险防治迎来新的机遇，同时也面临诸多问题和挑战。通过研究14个省和2个自治区地震灾害风险防治协同文件与协同实践，聚焦政府内部，以综合部门与行业部门的关系为重点，对我国地震灾害风险防治协同情况进行梳理和审视，为进一步完善大应急体制下的地震灾害风险防治协同机制提供实践资料、理论分析和政策建议。  相似文献   

徕卡激光雷达技术在铁路全生命周期中的应用     

李海亮 《测绘通报》2020,(10):160-163

为了将激光雷达技术应用到铁路全生命周期中，充分发挥激光雷达技术的优势，本文以徕卡公司相关激光雷达产品为例，系统分析了不同类型的激光雷达的特点和铁路工程不同阶段的测量要求，总结了激光技术在铁路全生命周期中的应用方法。通过典型工程应用分析表明，激光雷达技术可显著提高铁路工程测量的效率和质量，具有良好的应用前景。  相似文献   

Characterization of complex groundwater flows in the environment of singular buildings by combining hydrogeological and non-destructive geophysical (ground-penetrating radar) techniques: Punta Begoña Galleries (Getxo,Spain)     

Jesus A. Uriarte  Laura Damas Mollá  Maialen Sagarna  Arantza Aranburu  Francisco García  Iñaki Antigüedad  Tomás Morales 《水文研究》2020,34(4):1004-1015

Locating and quantifying groundwater flow in many built-up areas are a priority with regard to its complete restoration. In this work, a hydrogeological survey of the surroundings of the Punta Begoña Galleries (Getxo, Bizkaia), built on a coastal cliff, was completed by using ground penetrating radar (GPR) testing. Thus, the preliminary characterization of soils and rocks in accessible areas of the cliff was first improved by hydrogeological information gathered from a single survey borehole, including permeability measurements by low pressure injection tests (LPTs) and continuous water level monitoring. As a complementary method, the non-destructive GPR technique was performed during both dry and wet hydrological periods and in tandem with the injection tests, providing more complete spatial and temporal images of water flows. Specifically, GPR allows mapping of flow paths in soils and assessing the continuity of fractures in rock masses. Altogether, this complementary approach provides greater knowledge of complex underground flow dynamics in built environments, thus making it easier to make decisions for their management.  相似文献